Sunday Service Play Thread 1/30/2022

[BuzzKill]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

Posting guidelines - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1168075

Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.

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[rockland]

Potato Kmish

LA Rams -165

 

[mvllxy]

Larry Hartstein: SF +3.5 -120 Writeup to come.

 

[bigbill]

Ralph Michaels
5* Tease: Kansas City~San Francisco,

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Jan 30 2022 6:40PM
Jimmy G U

(-115)BetOnline 323 SFX vs 324 LOS single-dime bet

Analysis: Jimmy Garopollo (SF) U234.5 pass yds -115 (Consensus)

 

[Yankees5560]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Jan 30 2022 3:05PM
Uzomah U

(-115)William Hill 321 CIN vs 322 KAN single-dime bet

Analysis:
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) U39.5 rec yds -115 (DK/Caesars/MGM/365)

Fading recency bias with this play against Uzomah.

Uzomah during the regular season went over this number four times in 16 games and averaged 30.8 yards per game.

The line is up to 39.5 due to him going for 64 and 71 receiving yards in his last two games. However, one thing the box score doesn’t show is that Uzomah gained 32 yards on a dump off pass as time expired from Burrow at the end of the half when Cincinnati caught the Titans with 7 defenders deep in the end zone protecting the Hail Mary.

Uzomah faced the chiefs earlier this season in a game where Burrow threw for 446 yards on his third most pass attempts of the season, and still finished for only 4 catches and 32 yards.

Fading the player and hoping that Cincinnati finds the 4 more dynamic passing game weapons in their offense over Uzomah in this one.

 

[ryangenero]

Football Jesus NFL : Rams

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters - https://www.therx.com/threads/971451/page-470#post-13775475

 

[mvllxy]

Larry Hartstein: SF +3.5 -120 Writeup to come.

Chiefs -7

 

[clay210]

Has anyone seen Lawrence's Playoff GOY? TIA

 

[dough]

Has anyone seen Lawrence's Playoff GOY? TIA

Of all the sites he sells his plays at I only see one that has a 10* play and since he has both dogs in his newsletter the game advertised is the SF/Rams game so I would say that SF is the play

 

[clay210]

Of all the sites he sells his plays at I only see one that has a 10* play and since he has both dogs in his newsletter the game advertised is the SF/Rams game so I would say that SF is the play

Didn't know if it would be a total or not. Thanks!

 

[JayGrace]

Jeff Ma 3-3 last week

Chiefs
49ers and under 45.5

 

[Mrdicky]

Bondi ncaa hoops anyone??? Tia

 

[Jsmith104020]

Ness Legend
chiefs -7

 

[dough]

Big Al NFL

Both games Over

 

[Koy_Detmer]

Kelly “In Vegas” Stewart
Championship Weekend:

Cin/KC under 54.5
Niners +3.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Hank Goldberg

Rams -3.5
Rams Under 45.5
KC -7
KC Over 54.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Maddux - Lines when released

KC-7
SF+3'(15)
LAR UN 4

 

[BuzzKill]

Early AFC and NFC Championship Game Sharp Action

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

This AFC Championship game kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Bengals (12-7 SU, 12-7 ATS) took down the Raiders 26-19 in the Wild Card round, covering as 6-point home favorites and then upset the Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites, and then outlasted the Bills 42-36, covering as 2.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Chiefs at home after their thrilling win over Buffalo. This lopsided betting has pushed Kansas City from -6.5 to -7. Some shops are flirting with a further move to 7.5. Favorites are 6-4 ATS this postseason. AFC and NFC Championship home favorites ae 17-13 ATS (57%) since 2003. At this point, the Bengals offer buy-low value as a road contrarian dog with an inflated line. There's some familiarity here, with the Bengals upsetting the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. Cincinnati also has a rest advantage, playing on Saturday afternoon while the Chiefs played Sunday night.

Sharps have also hit this over, steaming the total from 53.5 to 54.5. AFC and NFC Championship overs are 22-11 (67%) since 2003. The early forecast calls for low 40s with low 5 MPH winds and clear skies. Kansas City is 7-0 to the over their last seven games.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

This NFC Championship game takes place at 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday. The 49ers (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) have won outright as dog in both postseason games thus far, upsetting Dallas 23-17 as 3.5-point dogs and then shocking the Packers 13-10 as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) beat the Cardinals 34-11 in their playoff opener, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites, and then upset the defending champion Bucs 30-27 as 2.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back the Rams on a short number at home. However, all the juice is leaning on the 49ers ( 3.5 at -120). This signals liability on San Francisco plus the hook, along with a possible fall down from 3.5 to 3. Playoff divisional dogs are 8-6 ATS (57%) over the past decade. Kyle Shanahan is 27-18 ATS (60%) in his career as a dog. Jimmy G is 15-4 ATS (79%) as a dog. The 49ers are 2-0 against the Rams this season, winning 31-10 in Week 10 and 27-24 in Week 18. The 49ers have a rest advantage, playing on Saturday while the Rams played on Sunday.

We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total has been bet down from 47 to 46 despite a majority of public bettors taking the over. When the total falls at least a half-point in the playoffs, the under is 35-30 (54%) over the past decade.